AUSTIN, TX–An analyst for Strafor Global Intelligence has said that the continuing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can have global ramifications, regardless of the role the regional powers play in the conflict resolution process or in their positioning for regional dominance.
“Things could get out of hand, not because Russia, Turkey or Iran want it to get out of hand, but because simply the internal dynamics of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan take over and we have situation like in 1914 when a local conflict in Bosnia created a global war,” said Strafor analyst Marko Papic in a video interview obtained from the organization’s Web site.
Warning that Russia, Turkey and Iran could find themselves in a conflict that is out of their hands, Papic said that Nagorno-Karabakh is a very important topic right now because “the interplay of these major regional powers is going to depend on what happens in Armenia and Azerbaijan.”
“Russian interests from start for this particular conflict have been to really involve Turkey in an intractable conflict that really cannot be solved. And this really wastes Turkey’s time and energy in a region where Russia feels very secure—it feels that its not going to lose any leverage over either Armenia or Azerbaijan because of inroads Turkey may make. Furthermore, Azerbaijan seems to slowly be drifting toward Russia, as it feels spurned by Turkish negotiations with Armenia,” added Papic.
Strafor Global Intelligence is an international think-tank specializing in reports and analysis of global issues and events.