BY GAREN YEGPARIAN
With pup-Turk (Azeri) corpses piling up, the boneheads in Baku are probably scratching their heads as to what might be their next steps.
It seems the ten day span over which small bands of Azerbaijan’s armed forces have briefly breached Armenian lines (both republics’ borders) is the culmination of the ever increasing number of sniper and other attacks initiated by Baku. Add to this a new minister of defense occupying the office who seems to want to strut his stuff. Of course, we can’t forget the many years’ worth of military buildup, including drones. Interestingly, two of those drones seem to have been downed by Artsakh’s forces in recent weeks.
But all this is for naught. By most accounts, a serious escalation in hostilities is not anticipated by analysts. The Armenian side is attributing this senseless loss of life on both sides to Baku’s standard operating procedures— create tension ahead of upcoming meetings to abort any hope of meaningful progress in negotiations.
But there are some interesting observations to be made.
The normally bland Eduard Nalbandian, Foreign Minister of the Republic of Armenia actually seems to have developed some energy. The U.S. Department of State issues a typical, bloodless, statement, along with the OSCE and UN. I suggest they read “A Picture Worth a Thousand Words” which appeared in Asbarez. A 15-year old living in the border village of Baghanis, Armenia sketched his dream of amity between Armenians and Azeris. It profoundly moved this teenager’s camp counselors. Perhaps it will knock some sense into the “diplomats” who regularly call on BOTH sides to desist from escalation and hostilities, despite ONE side being the consistent and persistent aggressor.
But the Azeri assaults are not limited to the battlefield. A few days ago, an Azeri news source ran an item that stated an Armenian reporter who is “close to” the military had written that Armenians lost dozens of soldiers in these last rounds of fighting and that the Armenian side was suppressing this news. It turned out to be a complete fabrication, nothing of the sort had been written. Then, we also have Timothy Garton Ash speaking up on this issue. You might recall this is the British political writer and (conservative) Hoover Institution associate who was a strong voice against the French Genocide denial laws that failed to pass. It may be that some of the money the Baku is spending on public relations may actually be paying off in the form of getting their fantasies served up to a broader worldwide audience.
Perhaps it’s time to simplify life for both our republics by creating a third Armenian republic. Please see the accompanying map from Artsakh’s Washington, D.C. office’s website. I have drawn a blue line (perhaps hard to distinguish in the print edition of the paper) that runs the shortest distance from the Mingechaur (Mingachevir) reservoir’s (a body of water created in the 1950s by the damming of the Kura River) southerly side the current border of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. I suggest driving the Azeri’s back to that line.
It would reduce (by about seven times, by way of a very rough visual estimate) the length of the borders that Armenians would have to defend against Azeri incursions. Not only that, It would give Armenians control over a stretch of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, garnering handsome transit fees, perhaps taken in kind as oil. It would also put one of the three rail-routes from Azerbaijan to the north under Armenian control. Plus, this would give our side even more leverage over Baku from a water supply/flood control/electricity production perspective. The newly liberated territories could be constituted as the Armenian Republic of Cantsag (Gandsak) [currently referred to in the Turkified name Gyanja). Such a development might make the boneheads in Baku cool off for another twenty years.
Of course this doesn’t address the problem of increased (likely Turkish assisted) Azeri military activity from Nakhichevan. But that’s an issue for another article.
What do you think? Should we initiate a campaign to convince the authorities in Stepanakert and Yerevan to teach the pup-Turks this particular border-busting lesson?
I still think that war could break out, simply by Baku’s miscalculating Armenians resolve and things getting out of hand.
I think Russia itself may WANT a new war to throw the Caucasus into chaos, reduce the chances of US and NATO penetration, destroy the BTC and BTE pipelines that go to Turkey, and sell both sides more military supplies.
If the US and Europe continue to be pro-Azeri, and encouraging Azeri aggression, they will find themselves being kicked out of the Caucasus permanently.
It is time for all parties to do the right thing: recognize that Azeris have no valid claim on Artsakh.
I fully agree with you and I have been saying this for many years now except that the pipelines should be blown up so the petrodollars stop and Sheikh Aliev ends up in his Monaco mansion with his harem and Tony Blair as his butler. Sure the pipelines will be repaired and the income can be divided between Armenia and our much smaller and weaker Axerbaijan.
What are we waitng for?
”It would give Armenians control over a stretch of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline”
Lol In this pipeline, The Giant companies like BP, Chevron, Statoil, Exxon etc of the world have sharing. And you plan to get control over this pipeline. This makes me laugh. This pipeline is guarded not only by Turkey, Azerbaijan but also by UK, the US, France etc. So it is impossible to get control BTC with an illegal way like this.
There is a big gap in your article, what about the sale of over 4 billion dollars worth of sophisticated weapons by our so-called ally? How is it that you neglect to see the big white bear in the room? As bad and as ugly as they are, the Azeris are nobodies without weapons and political cover. The root cause of their recent bolstering is precisely because they now feel empowered both militarily and politically. Russia’s role in all this is obvious. The path to hegemony over the region is to win over the Azeris, and with Karabagh in the cards, it doesn’t take much to guess what Mother Russia is up to.
Maybe mother Russia likes encouraging the chicken sh*t baboons with weapons they are too stupid to use, to take the first steps in their downfall, and to force the Armenian side to ask some serious questions as to how long it can continue to pursue a policy of non escalation. It’s time for that artificial invention of a country to get a lot smaller. They not only occupy Armenian lands but have successfully subdued the rightful aspirations of several other indigenous groups such as the Lesgi, Talish, and Avars who await liberation.
I was thinking the same, but your plan can create complications and I cant state on publically on the net for armenias security. But I rather they concentrate taking Nakhichevan the opportunity was in 1992, if they do the 2 days jurney of our transportation trucks through goris and meghry will cut into 2 hours maximum into iran, also the Armenia will have bigger and open access into iran, not to mention the agriculture grounds.
YES GO AHEAD
Armenia simply has no other choice than to take exactly the steps which you have outlined. It is imperative to secure the borders and allow villagers to carry on their normal life, and to balance Baku’s destructive combination of immaturity, cruelty, stupidity and oil money.
Are we living in a fairy tale ?? First off Turkey has an agreement where it is a sole protector of Nakichevan’s security. I don’t think we want to take on a nation of 78 million Turks with our current economic and political strength. 2nd taking over Ganja and the surrounding dams / pipelines requires major military strength and resources. In 1993 we we had a real fighting purpose. Today we really dont. Corruption, lack of democracy and hope is killing the Armenian fighting g spirit. Now we are getting over confident. Let’s not bite more than we can swallow.
This is la-la land thinking. We’ll lose what little we have even if it was just considered. It’s childish, to say the least, for even discussing such an absurd idea.
The only people who live in la la land are those who can not accept the reality that war is inevitable. When the leader of a neighboring country claims your capitol is their land, and their military budget exceeds your state budget parity will at some point become difficult to maintain and war become unavoidable. So you can either fight when the enemy has the advantage or when you have the advantage but fight you will. The only questions really is when? By securing territories above NKR, the Armenians would clearly gain numerous benefits: a) you shorten the line of contact, b) you control the pipeline and can collect transit fees, which c) makes it easier to buy additional weapons systems d) You ensure stability in the region, by forcing the other side to cooperate if they want the oil to flow. One thing is clear, Azerbaijan is a source of instability with or without Armenia. With Armenia third parties with an interest in the region have a lever of control over them. In the long term with the exception of the turks, the interests of most third parties are better served with this type of arrangement as well as it results in far greater balance and stability in the long term.
Dear GAREN YEGPARIAN;
Please accept an invitation to see and get acquainted with unique creation which converts one kg of water into roughly one gk of hydrogen. The creators are 6 Armenian scientists and engineers. The device is ready. Our best weapon is our wisdom and intelligence. We do have them. Dear Garen, please respond, when it is appropriate for you to meet with the inventors for writing an article. It is my initiative to organize the meeting. You will be surprised.
Attacking the pipeline would please Russia who would dream of that but that would lead to European and US hostility.